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     Key Judgements

    • Syria’s interim government faces a critical December 31, 2025, deadline to integrate Kurdish SDF forces, threatening the fragile one-year-old political transition if negotiations fail.
    • Lebanon’s inability to disarm Hezbollah by the US-imposed December 31 deadline risks triggering renewed
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    Recent Posts
    Renewed Thailand-Cambodia hostilities   Posted on

    On 7th December the ceasefire deal between Thailand and Cambodia collapsed as heavy fighting broke out along the817km border. This … Read the rest

    Spike in cross-border smuggling networks between Belarus, Poland and Lithuania Posted on

    Key Judgements

    • Large-scale increases in low-cost aerial smuggling methods over the Polish, Belarusian and Lithuanian border area, centred around commercially
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    Security Updates
    Maritime Advisory – Iran/Israel (24 June 2025)

    Overview

    The regional threat level remains ELEVATED for vessels operating in or transiting through the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Northern Arabian Sea due to growing geopolitical tensions and a rapidly evolving security environment. The nearly two-week conflict saw tensions significantly escalate between Iran and Israel, with US involvement intensifying the situation. As of 24 June, the impact on shipping operations remains relatively limited and vessel traffic remains largely unaffected – the Strait of Hormuz remains open with maritime traffic flows continuing. These conditions could change quickly and vessels transiting or planning to transit the region in the coming days are advised to assess the security situation prior to entering the area, should be prepared to act on short-notice intelligence, and should ensure that crew are briefed on potential escalation scenarios.

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    Maritime Advisory – Iran / Israel (18 June 2025)

    Summary

    The threat level remains ELEVATED for vessels operating in or transiting through the Arabian Gulf, Strait of Hormuz and Northern Arabian Sea due to the uncertainty within the current environment. The situation in the region is unfolding rapidly and security conditions, including those impacting maritime shipping, could evolve and change quickly with little notice. As of 17 June, the impact on shipping operations in the region remains relatively limited and vessel traffic remains large unaffected – the Strait of Hormuz remains open with maritime traffic flows continuing. These conditions could change quickly and vessels transiting or planning to transit the region in the coming days are advised to assess the security situation prior to entering the area and adjust security protocols accordingly.

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